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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."